We had a decent night with last nights selections, Burton being the highlight, we delve down to see what Wednesday has to offer…
With another night in the championship and champions league to choose from, there is some clear value in tonights games and we think weve found some of the best…
Valencia are our pick of the day at 13/5, after beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, they will be confident they can repeat the result at the Mestalla, and Chelsea have failed in most of their big tests this season, Valencia, Ajax and Chelsea all sit joint top of the group with 7 points, with the latter too facing off in Matchday 6 whilst Chelsea will face Lille in a game they will fancy to win. Valencia lost 3-0 to Ajax at home and will not fancy going into that game needing a win to qualify so will hope to take the pressure off tonight, and Chelsea’s young naive team could be the perfect opponents to that against, its no dead cert, but at 13/5 the value far outweighs that of Chelsea at 11/10 away. That is the early kickoff at 17:55 so possibly start with a single on Valencia to take some profit into the later games in England and across the rest of Europe.
In the Championship, its a battle down to bottom as Middlesborough host Barnsley in what is the first game ever that it might be possible for both teams to lose, just kidding, but Boro must be kicking themselves after throwing away a 2-0 lead to Hull at the weekend, so will be raring to put it right this evening, they will know they need to win and the importance of not losing, so with all things considered, including the lack of quality in both teams, the best value would be the draw at 11/4.
Speaking of Hull, they host Preston tonight who lost themselves at the weekend to a poor Derby County side, this has given them good odds to come away from humberside with the points at 7/4 and they don’t tend to lose consecutive games, so Preston at 7/4 is the pick here.
Blackburn will host Brentford and look good value at 11/5 at home, Brentford are a few places above but a win tonight would close that gap and they are coming off a win at the weekend, at home, those odds are too high.
Forest are back on the road and travel to Loftus Road to face QPR, statistically one of the best sides for Forest to face as they boast a good head to head record against them, after the weekend draw at Bristol, Forest would love to get back amongst it with an away win that would but them in the top three with a game in hand, they are 21/10 to do so and we are backing them to do it following their good away form this year thus far.
Elsewhere in Europe, the value is difficult to find due to most of the favorites being at home, it might be worth having a look at players to be booked as this has been extremely profitable in recent weeks, and some players will be facing a ban if they pick up another card tonight. As the reset for this isnt until the Quarter Finals, it might be worth looking to see if any of the big teams who have guaranteed qualification have any big players with a yellow card to their name, if they pick up another one tonight they will be banned from the final group game which in most cases would be a dead rubber, if they’ve already qualified.
Think Jose Mourinho and Sergio Ramos a few years ago. If RB Leizpig take a good league at home to Benfica, they will have nothing to play for next week, so they have 2 players currently on 2 bookings, if they get a third they would be banned, so it would make sense for them to miss next weeks dead rubber, rather than risk the round of 16, there 2 players on 2 bookings are – Dayot Upamecano – Centre back and Amadou Haidara – midfielder. Both are a short price to start but watch the odds grow as the match goes on, if Leizpig get into a good lead, back them both to be booked as singles.
